Marketing strategy at ASDA

Marketing strategy at ASDA This chapter includes the conclusions drawn from the analysis that contributes towards fulfilling the purpose of this project. Also find out the key analysis from the various chapters of research. At the end of this chapter give the outlined the limitation of research and recommends some point that Asda can provide its better services and increase profits. Chapter 1 give the brief introduction of research topic. The purpose of the study is how technology is used as a marketing strategy to increase sales and better operation of specific retail store and taken case study of Asda. The researcher has started with concept of technology and describes how effectively changes coming in retail industry through technology. also show effect of the adoption of new technology on the whole retail industry. It shows how the internet technology useful to do online business. The chapter outline the rational behind the study and how retail stores can use technology to gain competitive advantages again their competitor. It also highlighted the problem behind study, technology helps the organisation but technology is very expensive tools and must be deal with professional way to take advantages from it. The researcher has outlined the structure of whole study in chapter. Chapter2 is about the literature review; in this chapter researcher talk about Asda used its technology advancement in different field to satisfy their customer needs and requirement. New technology has helped to quicken and improved business in this global market. The nature of human are always changing they want better products and technology has helped company to satisfy their customers needs and wants.UK grocery market is very competitive and Asda has been ahead of this competition. The researcher also talks about the different types of technology used by Asda to gain competitive advantage in various fields. Asda uses scanning machine and RFID technology in their stores, which is helped to keep up to date data and also providing the security to its customers. The literature review outlines Asda uses various technologies like ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) and security system like Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM).they also uses Net Framework technology for safe and sec ure transaction over internet. Asda provide top class online services and has gain competitive advantage over its rivals, online service also comfortable shopping, because customer order products directly to their homes without visiting the busy high streets. The researcher has pointed out the importance of Marketing Mix which is basic of any business, thats four Ps are very useful to gain competition advantage and Asda has been very successive to adopted the four Ps according to their customer needs and requirements. In this chapter also discuss that Asda give the priority to provide the best services to their customers. According to kotler (2003) you should happy to all business partners, customers, suppliers and distributors for earning and long time business and Asda has been do this very successfully. Asda provide loyalty schemes to attract the customers and customers gain benefits on their purchases. Its adaptive websites has a 24hours online service which solves the customers problem online. Asda has well trained staffs for customers to serve better. The chapter also shows Asda focus on customer retention instead of the new customer acquisition, its depend on making long term relation and always try to maintain it. Asda are using database technology to keep up to date records of customers who visit its stores and serve better for next time. According to Kotler(2003) pointed out that e-marketing is more skilful for database marketing and customer relationship. The chapter also focus on how logistic technology has helped retail sector and discuss Asda invested money for high class logistic technology and well planned supply chain management systems. This helped to Asda for goods transportation in time. In addition some people criticism phase by Asda to used RFID microchip to scan products used at their stores but it has helped to provide better security at their supermarkets. Chapter 3 gives the overview of the United Kingdom Country, The retail sector of UK and the company of Asda. The study of this chapter shows the important fact of company, retail sector and country. It also pointed out the technology used by Asda. Its also show how Asda increase the market share in the industry. In short this chapter gives the general information of the country, the retail industry and the Asda Company. Chapter 4 is about the Research Methodology. In this chapter researcher pointed out the aim of the research, the approach of the research to collect data methods, the research design, data collection methods, different sampling methods and the analysis of the data. The aim of study is too know how technology helped to improve the operation of Asda and achieve their business objectives; the research design is detail plan of conducting the market research object and requires needed information to make structure for solve different marketing research problems, and it includes descriptive, empirical and exploratory research. Research has generated primary data through the questionnaire, The UK local public has filled the questionnaire and researcher used of this collected data to analyse the findings. The researcher collected secondary data from the different books, journal articles, news and websites. It was both types of qualitative and quantitative data. In this chapter researcher poi nted out the sampling methods and also suggested and recommend things to Asda so it can do improvement in its services. In this study, non probability judgemental sampling method used by researcher. Questionnaire set was distributed among the Asda customers. The researcher also pointed out the limitation of study. Chapter5 is about the finding and analysis, the researcher has analysed the collected data with the use of different graphs and charts. The researcher found out from the questionnaire which completed by people that pointed out they were happy and satisfied with the overall services and facilities provided by Asda to them, the main problem for concern was the online payment method they were worried about that their personal information might be misused and thefts might occur in their bank accounts. The other fact which came out from finding was that people were not happy about the Asda website as it was complicated and it was difficult to locate the exact goods that customer needed, but people were more happy about the charges of delivery which are less compare to other retail stores. So overall result of questionnaire was very positive and customers were happy with the services provided by Asda to them but have to improve their services in certain fields. Research aims and objectives The activities concerned with Marketing Research starting with the objectives to carry out the research and this research proved that technology used by ASDA reach these objectives and outline given below To study how technology has helped retail sectors to give better customer service and maintain customer loyalty. To observe that if the use of better logistics technology improved ASDA sales. Has online services provided by ASDA helped people shop more easily. To show that how important is marketing mix in retail sector. Research questions are as follows How online technology has improved the way business is done in the retail sector? How technology helps in better customer service and satisfaction in retail industry? How logistics technology has helped ASDA retail market to gain competitive advantage against its competitor? 2.5 Logistics Technology and E-scm at ASADAAAA Logistics technology plays a key role in the successful management of the retail business. Logistics services are a channel of the supply chain with the value of time and place utility. The internet integrates business information between supply chain partners. Logistics Technology and supply chain is managing the flow of products, their transformation in to finished products to the final buyer. The main functions are production, transportation, inventory procurement, customer satisfaction. Logistics Management plays a key role in the retail sector like ASDA have their business in different areas and supply of products and services must be efficiently carried out, there are require good relation with the suppliers of the products. /* ASADAAAA has developed the ASADAAAA Information Exchange (TIE) in association with GE Information Services (GEIS) it is an extranet solution that allows ASADAAAA and it suppliers to collaboratively exchange trading information. Information such as Electronic Point Of Sale EPOS) data, track sales and internet telephone mail (Chaffey,2007).The huge competition between the supermarkets giants like ASADAAAA and Sainsbury led to the growing importance of the Logistics Technology and Supply Chain Management. /* UK major food retailers are giving more concentration on technological development and innovation. Radio-frequency identification (RFID) is the automatic identification technology that uses radio waves to automatically tracking and identifies objects. In RFID technology uses tag for logistics purposes, this tags are bound with individual products in warehouses. They can be used as scanners with the range under 6 metres (ibid).after the used of rfid in the uk retail industry they have advantages of better tracking and forecasting ,greater efficiency and speed in stock operations. (Jones et al,2005). /*RFID technology used by ASADAAAA came into huge criticism and had to acquire permission from the European Union Legislation to use it.(ibid).People felt that if affected their privacy as the chip scanned through the individual personal bag. on 07/11/09.ASADAAAA knew the importance of satisfying the customers due to the increasing number of business that was done through its website, ASADAAAA felt the need for better after sale delivery services and made a contract with TNT Logistics UK for delivery services for its ASADAAAA Direct stores.TNT logistics has software system that include HDi home delivery system, Red Praines Dlx warehouse management system, Paragon route planning and Pen Pod for collecting electronic signatures, which makes business processes efficient and easy to have customer satisfaction(www.shippingline.biz)retrieved 07/11/09. */ E-SCM. It is apparent that supply chain management involves a firms suppliers and customers, as well as the processes used to transfer a product or service from an order in inventory to delivery. An E-SCM must also integrate technology, especially the internet, in an effort to speed communication and information flow throughout the supply chain. The internet has allowed collaboration among supply chain partners to become automated, providing access to real-time information and fostering a communication-based network for businesses to operate throughout its supply chain. ////// Figure : The IT Technologies adopted in a retail Supply chain. Nowadays Retail sectors are adopting the new application of the It technologies in supply chain management. From the figure we can see that POS (Point of Sales) is used for the retail store to sell products to customers.EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) are mainly used for the data exchange between the SC participants. RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) widely used for data capture in warehouses; and DM (Data Mining) is used in the back office for data collection of customers. The figure show the used of IT technologies in the retail sector in supply chain management and their functionalities and features. Electronic data interchange(EDI) EDI can be define as computer to computer data transmission of standardised business transitions (Walton and Marucheck, 1997), EDI is widely used to collect highly precise and very efficient information through internet and its useful to increase their orders and transaction process. Accordingly Bamfield (1994) EDI can be use for enhanced companys planning and control to a lower inventories with timely data or information. EDI is play very important roles in retail organisation because it is useful for fast business transaction ,EdI replace old traditional methods like exchanging documents such as different purchases orders, order confirmations, payment of goods, invoices. EDI also reduces other cost like postage and paper based work(Ferguson et al., 1990, Murphy and Daley, 1999).By using the EDI ,organisation like Asda has improved their business ,in sense of shorted lead time,quickly reduce stock out and improve demand forecasting of products(Vijayasarathy and Tyler, 1997). Furthermore, EDI is also beneficial in supply chain. It has one additional feature which are useful for integration and coordination ( Hill and Scudder, 2002) through frequency and automatic transfer of information to supplier and distributers which is improving information accuracy and communication between them(Murphy and Daley, 1999).This improved communication provides timely information of transaction status to customers which improves customer service of Organisation (Angeles, et al., 1998).Accordingly Ellram et al.(1999) supplier and retailers must work together to implement compatible systems in order to realise the benifits of EDI Data Mining Data mining is a way to observing large volumes of data collected in databases. firstly ,company using computer collect the all business data like retail sales, banking data/records and manufacturing data reports (Lee and Siau, 2001).then after all collected data goes to warehouses where the make database and analyser analyse the data and explore the total business situations. DM is also useful to analyse the different effect of 4Ps Price, place, promotion, Production and market share. DM is also useful to recognise that which customers group will be highly responsive to market promotion campaign. Asda also used this technology in strategic and tactical decision such as making competitive strategies ,to find out market opportunities, launch new products in markets, customer acquisition, retention and that all are useful to cost reduction. DM technique is useful for SC applicants to make intelligent marketing strategy on market targeting, segmentation, positioning and differentiation (Forcht and Cochran, 1999).By analyse point of sale data and other research data of database, the Marketing manager can able to segmentation of customer market, evaluate market segment and select particular target market segment by using DM knowledge in retail industry. The application of DM techniques is beneficial for efficient retail supply chain management, warehouse management and distribution system. The information about previous order, supplier performance and previous price are utilized by procurement unit for judging and selecting suppliers.DM techniques also useful for analyse the warehouse stock in manner to goods type, goods location and its management. DM technique is integrated existing software and hardware which provide existing information resources. RFID: It is useful for Real time data collection. RFID is give the information of products to the manager, how much stocks are available in store and how much sold to customers. According to Attaran (2007), Organisations should consider RFID if they want to increase their revenue growth, lower cost, reduce inventory, better utilise fixed assets and gain favour over its rivals. RFID is used for provides both time based and content based information. As a result retailer can get the precise, relevant and absolute information of products and their customers (Jones et al., 2005(a)).which will useful to improve their customer services. By the use of RFID , organisation has fast and reliable information transmission so reduce the manually inventory costs and increased accuracy and efficient of transport. Which automatically make the better warehouse management and reduced other operation cost (Jones et al., 2005(b)). RFID is also improved the quickly response to product request of customers. So, we can say that RFID bring wide range of benefits to retail sector supply chain, After the RFID technology introduced in the retail sector that Revolutionizing retail Supply Chain and developed the longer term strategic based on decisions which show to be a valuable component of RFID adoption . So we can say that in other words UK major food retailers are giving more concentration on technological development and innovation. Radio-frequency identification (RFID) is the automatic identification technology that uses radio waves to automatically tracking and identifies objects. In RFID technology uses tag for logistics purposes, this tags are bound with individual products in warehouses. They can be used as scanners with the range under 6 metres (ibid).after the used of rfid in the uk retail industry they have advantages of better tracking and forecasting ,greater efficiency and speed in stock operations. (Jones et al,2005). RFID has some limitations. Parker (2003) states that, Caspian a US shoppers rights group has called for worldwide boycott of Gillette for its use of RFID technology. Because they thought it was going to interfere customers personal life. The customers personal transactional data being held in the RFID tag after the POS may be misused, accessed unauthorised or disclosed, which is a potential challenge in adopting RFID. Logistics technology is expensive so industry must use it perfectly for gain benefit against their competitors. If the elements of logistics not controlled effectively than its remarkably expansive.(FernieSparks, 1988).The products or stock also expensive and if damage might become out date or might not sell. Distribution centre and ware house are costly to maintain and operate, also use for transportation vehicles are expensive and require maintenance. Companies always want to get their goods to the market fastest, try to minimize the their inventory costs and the most mileage from their services and delivery fleets are the one that succeed and most super market are connecting their logistics process with buyers and supplier.(Aghazadeh, 2004) ASDA has large scale purchasing power and established well planned supply chain management and logistics system, so it can control it suppliers and distribution, it has latest information system and associated with leading software solution providing companies and deliveries of products has helped it get advantage over its rivals. the trained staff of asda use this logistics technology to serve the consumer better and make them to satisfy. The competitive nature of the UK retail sector has organized supply chain and logistics management very important and the vast investment put into in by company like ASDA emphasizes its importance.

Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

Hanoi University Faculty of Management and Tourism Vietnam's Consumer Price Index and Influencing Factors An Econometrics Report 5/11/2012 Tutorial 2 – BA09 Lecturer: Ms. Dao Thanh Binh Tutor: Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh Group members: Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID: 0904000018 Ngo Thi Mai Huong ID: 0904000039 Le Thanh Long ID: 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID: 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID: 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID: 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID: 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID: 0904000092 AcknowledgementFirst and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the possibility to complete this research. We would like to convey our sincere thanks to our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and dedicated lectures. Without her valuable knowledge, this research cannot be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude also goes to our beloved tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her devoted inst ructions and support were of great help.Without her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this paper would not be able to come to this result. Abstract In recent years, Vietnam’s inflation has increased to an alarming rate of two-digit, ranking itself one of 5 countries having the highest inflation rate in the world. That Consumer Price Index (CPI) has incessantly escalated is the primary reason for such worrying issue. Our project, therefore, is aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnam’s CPI by testing the impact of following factors on CPI: USD/VND exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply.Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing from CPI and affecting factors analysis may be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur as a result of distressing inflation. The model that can best illustrate relationship between the independent variables and CPI has been detected. Basing on our research, it is apparent that those four variables have a significant influence on Consumer Price Index. Table of Contents Acknowledgementii Abstractiii List of Tables and Figuresv 1. Introduction1 2. Methodology2 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sources2 . 2. Methods of processing the data2 3. Data analysis3 3. 1. Consumer Price Index3 3. 2. Exchange rate4 3. 3. Petrol price5 3. 4. Rice price6 3. 5. Money supply7 4. Model specification7 4. 1. Variables and relationships7 4. 2. Model selection8 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing13 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation13 5. 2. Hypothesis testing13 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients13 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model15 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable16 6. Errors and limitation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2.Errors and remedials18 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocorrelation21 7. Conclusion24 Appendixa Referencesb List of Tables and Figures Table 1: EVi ew regression result: Lin-lin model9 Table 2: EView regression result: Log-log model10 Table 3: EView regression result: Lin-log model11 Table 4: EView regression result: Log-lin model12 Table 5: R2 and CV comparison between models12 Table 6: EView regression result: New model16 Table 7: EView regression result: P-R,MS18 Table 8: EView regression result: R-P,MS19 Table 9: EView regression result: MS-P,R19Table 10: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21 Table 11: EView regression result: Durbin-Watson statistic22 Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 223 Figure 1: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 20103 Figure 2: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 20104 Figure 3: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 20105 Figure 4: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 20106 Figure 5: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion)7 1. Introduction Every nation worldwide has ever confronted with inflation and attempting to solve inflation problem.Vie tnam is not an exception. Inflation has proved to be one of the most concerned issues by both Vietnamese government and economists for nearly a decade as it has tendency towards ceaselessly inflating since 2004. Inflation is an increase in overall prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate during a year will probably rise if there is a escalation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that year comparing to previous year, basing on following formula: InflationYear 2=CPIYear 2-CPIYear 1CPIYear 1Therefore, understanding the nature of inflation and efficiently anticipating it can essentially improve and strengthen the economy in generally, guiding business towards better strategy, as well as helping people adapt to price change in particular. Not only is CPI a powerful tool for government and economic experts to observe the whole society’s level of consumption, but it also, more importantly, predict the inflation rate that may have a considerable impact on the whole economy as well as the people’s daily lives.According to World Bank and International Monetary Funds (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-inflation zone with a growing CPI. As for IMF’s facts, Vietnam’s CPI in August 2011 went up by 23. 02% compared to the same month of 2010; CPI in December 2011 also increased by 15. 68% compared to 2010. Besides, Vietnam’s economy has witnessed a simultaneous boost in price of goods and petrol throughout the year, together with decreasing purchasing power in recent years. Do these facts indicate a bad situation for Vietnam? We probably do not know for sure.We, instead, can help develop a more optimistic economy from the prediction of CPI as well as inflation rate of Vietnam. From such above serious facts and figures, this project is conducted to analyze Vietnam’s CPI and factors affecting CPI, then, giving prediction about Vietnam’s inflation rate by forming an overall picture of v ariations in people’s living expenditure, thus assist judging the possibility of inflation which may collapse even a huge economy of Vietnam due to the case of hyperinflation. 2. Methodology 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sourcesAs discussed earlier and will be examined deeper later in this paper, there are some factors that play an important role in deciding the level of consumer price index in Vietnam. They consist of the movement of exchange rate (specifically, the USD/VND exchange rate), the price of petrol in Vietnam which is very critical, the Vietnamese rice price and governmental money supply. Through the application of econometric theories along with the examination of each single factor, the model can be formed as follow: CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In order to gather the information regarding the four factors (independent variables), a number of data have been collected in the period 2000 – 2010: * The annual Vietnamese USD/VND exchange rate; * The annual Vietnamese rice price; * The annual money supply of Vietnamese government and other institutions; * The annual petrol price of Vietnam. All the data gathered have been found from various sources on trusted websites, in which we can count on the reliability and accuracy of the statistics and other related information. 2. 2. Methods of processing the data The data gathered above are just raw data.Therefore, in order to make prediction about the level of CPI in Vietnam accurately, some processes and calculation surely need to be made. First time, the raw data ought to be processed through the power of such computational tools as Eview and Microsoft Excel. Particularly, Microsoft Excel will help determine the trend in the independent variables (exchange rate, rice price, money supply and petrol price) as they change throughout the years and other necessary computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in figuring out some critical indicators (t-st atistic, R squared, adjusted R squared, p-value, etc. . After having those numbers and indices, two tests (the t-test and the f-test) are professionally used to make out not only the degree of significance of each independent variable but also the overall meaningfulness that all the independent variables contribute to the determination of CPI. From then on, it should be more convenient for us to make some anticipation about the trend of CPI in Vietnam based on the processed data we made. 3. Data analysis 3. 1. Consumer Price Index Figure [ 1 ]: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 2010First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) measures of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. In fact, it provides information about price changes in the nation’s economy to government, business, labor and private citizens and is used by them as a guide to making economic decisions. Therefore, analyzing CPI is very important this aids in formulating fiscal and monetary po licies. As can be seen from the chart, there was a steady increase in the CPI from 2000 to 2010. In other word, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living during 10 years.To specify, after undergoing a slight growth in the first fourth years from 100 to about 110, CPI increased significantly to a peak of around 210 in the last year. There are many factors including exchange rate, money supply, rice price and petrol price which cause this growth in CPI are being concerned. 3. 2. Exchange rate Figure [ 2 ]: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the exchange rate of USD/VND experienced an upward trend. In 2000, the USD/VND exchange rate was VND 14,170, then increased by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the exchange rate remained stable around VND 15,700 which can be explained by some rationales. First of all, Vietnam central bank manipulated the market by sellin g USD and tried to adjust the exchange rate unchanged in following years (vietcombank, 2002). Moreover, due to the US economic instability and USD depreciation against other currencies, VND depreciated less than expected. In 2009, the exchange rate underwent a surge to VND17, 066 and continued increasing dramatically to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central bank implemented many policies to stabilize the exchange rate, it still rose significantly since many citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it appreciated much more against VND (scribd, 2010). Another reason is the real demand in USD due to the increase in exported products and labours. According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, vice president of the Central Bank, increasing exchange rate is an effective tool crafted by the central bank to boost export and economic development (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . Petrol price Figure [ 3 ]: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data accumulated, the gasoline pric e generally has an upward trend though the 11-year period from 2000 to 2010 Over the first 4 years from 2000 to 2003, the price of gasoline remained the same or changed not much. The 4 years of price stability had experienced the dramatic change, which was a huge increase to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the gasoline price slightly felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, followed by a significant growth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the duration of 2008 and 2010. In conclusion, the price of gasoline in Vietnam is predicted to be continuing to grow over the next few years. 3. 4. Rice price Figure [ 4 ]: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice price has an upward trend though the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010. The price of rice sold was fairly steady over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight rise to 100. 6%. This stability was followed by a sudden increase to 122. % in 2006. This trend was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an official member of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnam’s inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 2007–2008 world food price crises contributed a part in the growth of world food price in general and rice price in Vietnam in particular ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), leading to a remarkable rise on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vietnamese rice shot up over 2. 5 times from 2000 (100%) to 2010 (215. %) and this trend is surmised to still keep going on in next few years. 3. 5. Money supply Figure [ 5 ]: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion) Starting with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the amount of money in the economy saw a slight rise between 2001 and 2004 but money supply still lower than $ 500,000 million, before ending with a significant increase for the last period and reaching at $ 2, 478,310 billion in 2010. With the amount of money in market increasing by from 15% to 50% each year; Vietnamese have more money to spend and price level also affected. 4.Model specification 4. 1. Variables and relationships In order to study the movements of CPI in Vietnam, it is essential to evaluate the factors that drive the changes in CPI. a) USD/VND exchange rate It is easily seen that Vietnam has suffered from a great trade deficit which means import being more than export. Therefore, if the exchange rate USD/VND increases, which can be explained as VND depreciates against USD; imported products will be more expensive than before. Since imported products exceed exported products, Vietnamese consumers have to suffer from higher price of all imported products.By that, domestic producers as the result will take advantage of this moment to increase the price of domestic products to compete with other foreign products. Tradable goods being half the basket of the CPI will increase t he price which leads to the surge in the CPI. b) Petrol price Almost all the products directly or indirectly need the use of petrol as the main fuel for transportation, production or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of petrol increases, the cost of production will experience a rise as well.Hence, the producers will increase the prices of goods to compensate for the increase in production cost which contributes to higher CPI. c) Rice price One of the main categories that are included in the basket of goods when calculating CPI is food. Vietnam is a country where people consume rice as the main food in daily meals, thus the change in rice price will affect the CPI of Vietnam. d) Money supply Lastly, as CPI is heavily dependent on the prices of goods and services, money supply is also one of the factors that have effect on CPI.This can be explained by the fact that the higher supply of money there is on the market, the lower the value of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam Dong depreciates, prices of goods and services will be higher and vice versa. As a result, money supply changes lead to CPI changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the identification of the factors affecting CPI above, the variables will be denoted as follow: CPI: Consumer Price Index ER: Exchange rate of USD/VND P:Petrol price R: Rice price MS:Money supplyA number of possible models are applicable for the research, and in order to evaluate the appropriateness of each model, we based on 2 criteria: * R2: Coefficient of determination: The percentage of variation in CPI is explained by the model. * CV: Coefficient of variation: The average error of the sample regression function relative to the mean of Y. The model with higher R2 and lower CV is better. a) Lin-Lin model CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:20| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 49. 84103| 25. 60055| 1. 946873| 0. 0995| ER| 0. 000830| 0. 001632| 0. 508588| 0. 6292| P| 0. 002170| 0. 000396| 5. 480252| 0. 0015| R| 0. 236729| 0. 046411| 5. 100736| 0. 0022| MS| 2. 02E-05| 5. 21E-06| 3. 885527| 0. 0081| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998614|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997691|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 1. 879410|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 402748| Sum squared resid| 21. 19309|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 83610| Log likelihood| -19. 21511|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 288740| F-statistic| 1081. 125|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 490665| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 1 ]: EView regression result: Lin-lin model Regression function: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729 ? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 998614 CV=? Y=1. 879410137. 9727=0. 013622 b) Log-Log model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:22| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1. 145265| 1. 841843| -0. 621804| 0. 5569| LOG(ER)| 0. 215912| 0. 205886| 1. 048698| 0. 3347| LOG(P)| 0. 089703| 0. 048661| 1. 843424| 0. 1148| LOG(R)| 0. 413783| 0. 038424| 10. 76876| 0. 0000| LOG(MS)| 0. 081931| 0. 034964| 2. 343304| 0. 0576| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998138|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 996897|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 014939|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -5. 266690| Sum squared resid| 0. 01339|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz c riterion| -5. 085828| Log likelihood| 33. 96679|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -5. 380698| F-statistic| 804. 0941|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 453663| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 2 ]: EView regression result: Log-log model Regression function: ln? (CPI)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin-Log model CPI=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | |Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1186. 909| 420. 9102| -2. 819864| 0. 0304| LOG(ER)| 85. 49691| 47. 05046| 1. 817132| 0. 1191| LOG(P)| 9. 066673| 11. 12034| 0. 815324| 0. 4460| LOG(R)| 80. 80824| 8. 780996| 9. 202627 | 0. 0001| LOG(MS)| 1. 356787| 7. 990229| 0. 169806| 0. 8707| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995428|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992380|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 3. 414025|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 5. 96616| Sum squared resid| 69. 93340|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 5. 777478| Log likelihood| -25. 78139|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 5. 482608| F-statistic| 326. 5862|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 282666| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 3 ]: EView regression result: Lin-log model Regression function: CPI=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) Log-Lin model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | |Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 4. 288043| 0. 311641| 13. 75958| 0. 0000| ER| 7. 55E-06| 1. 99E-05| 0. 379928| 0. 7171| P| 2. 76E-05| 4. 82E-06| 5. 717411| 0. 0012| R| 0. 000539| 0. 000565| 0. 953313| 0. 3772| MS| 1. 38E-07| 6. 34E-08| 2. 184042| 0. 0717| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995633|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992722|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 22878|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -4. 414290| Sum squared resid| 0. 003141|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| -4. 233428| Log likelihood| 29. 27859|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -4. 528297| F-statistic| 341. 9975|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 798845| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 4 ]: EView regression result: Log-lin model Regression function : ln? (CPI)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we have a comparison of R2 and CV among the models: | R2| CV| a| 0. 998614| 0. 013622| b| 0. 998138| 0. 030531| c| 0. 995428| 0. 24744| d| 0. 995633| 0. 046755| Table [ 5 ]: R2 and CV comparison between models From the results above, the model a) is the most appropriate model to explain the relationship between CPI the other factors: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation The chosen Lin-Lin model and its interpretation are described as follow: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103: If exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply equal 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic sense as there is no situation that e xchange rate, petrol price, rice price or money supply could be equal to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083: Holding other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217: Holding other variables constant, if price of petrol rises by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729: Holding other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI will rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002: Holding other variables constant, if money supply increases by 1 unit, CPI will go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. Hypothesis testing 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients a) Test the individual significance of ? 2 * Step 1: H0: ? 2=0 Ha: ? 2? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to conclude that ? is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. b) Test the individual significance of ? 3 * Step 1: H0: ? 3=0 Ha: ? 3? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 3 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. c) Test the individual significance of ? 4 * Step 1: H0: ? 4=0 Ha: ? ? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 4 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. d) Test the individual significance of ? 5 * Step 1: H0: ? 5=0 Ha: ? 5? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 5 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model * Step 1: H0: ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha: i? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if f-stat;fc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * Step 5: F-stat value f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. 125;fc=4. 3 * Step 6: Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is e nough evidence to conclude that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically significant. 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable From the test above, we drew the conclusion that ? 2 is insignificant. Thus, an F-test of dropping the independent variable of Exchange rate from the model will be conducted. The regression results obtained from EView of the new model is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 11:07| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 62. 73309| 3. 386991| 18. 52178| 0. 0000| P| 0. 002123| 0. 000364| 5. 828831| 0. 0006| R| 0. 229613| 0. 041843| 5. 487545| 0. 0009| MS| 2. 22E-05| 3. 29E-06| 6. 758719| 0. 0003| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998555|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997935|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11 026| S. E. of regression| 1. 777106|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 263137| Sum squared resid| 22. 10674|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 407826| Log likelihood| -19. 44725|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 171931| F-statistic| 1612. 50|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 175208| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 6 ]: EView regression result: New model The old model is: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The new model is: CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * Step 1: H0: ? 2 = 0 Ha: ? 2 ? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/Number of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if F* ; Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * Step 5: F* value F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * Step 6: Conclusion F* ; Fc Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically reasonable to drop Exchange Rate variable from the model. The new model obtained is:CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS| 6. Errors and limitation 6. 1. Limitations In spite of the results and discussion mentioned above, our report in general and our model in particular have their limitations that hinder our group to develop the most effective model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 dependent variable and 4 independent variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we have only collected 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not have the similar observations. It is obvious to state that the larger the sample size the higher the probability that our sample statistics get close to the true value or population parameters. For such reason, our small number observations may result in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there exists mutual effects among the independent variables. For instance , the Money supply may have an effect on the Exchange rate. Additionally, the Rice price is also influenced by the Petrol price because petrol is the main energy source for production, etc.Such problems may falsify our results and they will be discussed further in the section of errors and remedies. To conclude, even though limitations exist, the foundation of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the future will be designed and eliminated all negative limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists due to some functional the existence of linear relationship among some or all independent variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators have large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. This error can lead to large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. In order to detect the existence of multicollinearity, a simple tool of detection which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of auxiliary regressions that depict the relation ship between the independent variables must be done. Dependent Variable: P| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 12:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 2529. 790| 3163. 446| 0. 799695| 0. 4470| R| 28. 45504| 39. 34718| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 0. 003706| 0. 002908| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 890213|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 10088. 18| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 862766|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 4656. 172| S. E. of regression| 1724. 882|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 17. 97071| Sum squared resid| 23801730|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 18. 07922| Log likelihood| -95. 83888|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 17. 90230| F-statistic| 32. 434 22|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 144479| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00145| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 7 ]: EView regression result: P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 10855;10 Dependent Variable: R| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:11| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 67. 25990| 15. 92311| 4. 224043| 0. 0029| P| 0. 002156| 0. 002982| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 5. 93E-05| 1. 82E-05| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 943086|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 144. 2364| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 928858|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. ependent var| 56. 29715| S. E. of regression| 15. 01585|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 8. 483090| Sum squared resid| 1803. 805|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 8. 591607| Log likelihood| -43. 65699|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 8. 414685| F-statistic| 66. 28185|   Ã ‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 625481| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000010| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 8 ]: EView regression result: R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 57047;10 Dependent Variable: MS| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:13| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -912567. 0| 169274. 2| -5. 391058| 0. 0007| P| 45. 52633| 35. 72593| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| R| 9603. 994| 2954. 787| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 949597|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 931956. 0| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 936996|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 761613. 1| S. E. of regression| 191169. 4|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 27. 38671| Sum squared resid| 2. 92E+11|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 27. 49522| Log likelihood| -147. 6269|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 27. 31830| F-statistic| 75. 36010|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 509023| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00006| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 9 ]: EView regression result: MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 84009;10 From the results above, we see that VIFP ; 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS ; 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for Petrol variable, while multicollinearity exists for Rice and Money Supply variables. This can be explained by the fact that Petrol price is not influenced by other factors whilst Rice and Money Supply are influenced by Petrol price, as petrol is one of the main sources of energy for production of other goods and services. In general, multicollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole purpose of our research is for prediction and forecasting the inflation level of Vietnam based on CPI and the factors affecting CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a serious issue for our research and we decided to take no action to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models violate one assumption which is homoskedasticity of equal variance of error terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard errors) of the coefficients to be biased, possibly above or below the true or population variance.As the consequence, biased standard error estimation can lead to both type I error (reject the true hypothesis) and type II error (do not reject false hypothesis). To detect the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose White's Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) to detect the existence of heteroskedasticity. * Step 1: H0: Homoskedasticity. Ha: Heteroskedasticity. * Step 2: Run the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui Run the auxiliary regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+†¦ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+†¦ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0:? 2=? 3=†¦ = ? q W-statistic: W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if W>? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * Step 5: W-statistic value From the results of EView, we have White Heteroskedasticity Test:| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Probability| 0. 720319| Obs*R-squared| 5. 253654| Probability| 0. 511716| | | | | | Test Equation:| Dependent Variable: RESID^2| Method: Least Squares| Date: 05/09/12 Time: 19:52| Sample: 2000 2010| Included observations: 11| Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | C| -51. 06331| 66. 56641| -0. 767103| 0. 4858| P| -0. 003894| 0. 005892| -0. 60928| 0. 5448| P^2| 1. 82E-07| 3. 29E-07| 0. 552995| 0. 6097| R| 1. 041681| 1. 113821| 0. 935232| 0. 4026| R^2| -0. 003233| 0. 003599| -0. 898302| 0. 4198| MS| -1. 70E-05| 3. 45E-05| -0. 490921| 0. 6492| MS^2| 8. 86E-12| 1. 31E-11| 0. 676092| 0. 5361| R-squared| 0. 477605| Mean dependent var| 2. 009703| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 305988| S. D. dependent var| 3. 115326| S. E. of regression| 3. 560188| Akaike info criterion| 5. 638630| Sum squa red resid| 50. 69977| Schwarz criterion| 5. 891836| Log likelihood| -24. 01247| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 651900| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 20319| Table [ 10 ]: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 – dU: Reject H0 * dU < d < 4 – dU: Do not reject H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL: Inconclusive k' = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595;dU = 1. 928 * Step 5: D-statistic value From EView table, we have D-statistic = 2. 175208 * Step 6: Conclusion We have 4 – dU = 4 – 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 – dL = 4 – 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL. There is not enough evidence to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:| | | | | | | | | | | | F-statistic| 0. 399592|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob. F(2,5)| 0. 6903| Obs*R-squared| 1. 515907|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob.Chi-Square(2)| 0. 4686| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Test Equation:| | | | Dependent Variable: RESID| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 14:40| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 0. 366991| 3. 997023| 0. 091816| 0. 9304| P| 0. 000262| 0. 000749| 0. 349805| 0. 7407| R| -0. 020687| 0. 052521| -0. 393881| 0. 7099| MS| -1. 21E-07| 4. 84E-06| -0. 025029| 0. 9810| RESID(-1)| -0. 121687| 0. 700832| -0. 173632| 0. 8690|RESID(-2)| -0. 759777| 1. 305304| -0. 582069| 0. 5858| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 137810|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| -5. 51E-15| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 724381|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 1. 486833| S. E. of regression| 1. 952445|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 478494| Sum squared resid| 19. 06021|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 695528| Log likelihood| -18. 63172|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan- Quinn criter. | 4. 341685| F-statistic| 0. 159837|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 950970| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 967201| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 12 ]: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 2 * Step 1: Identify Ho and Ha:Ho: No second order autocorrelation Ha: Second order autocorrelation * Step 2: Test statistic: BG – statistic = (n – p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * Step 3: Significance level: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule: Reject H0 if BG; ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * Step 5: BG-statistic value From EView table, we have BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 ; 5. 99174 * Step 6: Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to infer the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also notice that the p-value of first-order is greater than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion After thorou ghly investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best appropriate model, which can well explain the relationship between CPI and affecting factors, is the following one: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the model is proved to rather make sense as the fact that three independent variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, apparently affect Vietnam's CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is clearly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is reasonably dropped out of the model. Moreover, all independent variables have positive relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is truly difficult to have any suitable remedial. And, two rest errors including h eteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is unavoidable to some errors and limitations, but these problems seem trivial and slight. From above analyzed data, the independent variables present a common trend of increasing, which leads to tendency of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we insist that the CPI for the next years will boost. Despite Vietnamese government's important efforts to refrain the inflation rate, it is still essentially prone to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix Data of CPI, Exchange rate, Petrol price, Rice price and Money supply from 2000 to 2010Year| CPI| Exchange Rate| Petrol price| Rice price| Money supply (VND billion)| 2000| 100| 14,170. 23| 5400| 100| 196,994. 00| 2001| 102| 14,816. 76| 5400| 101| 250,846. 00| 2002| 104. 3| 15,346. 00| 5400| 101. 5| 284,144. 00| 2003| 107. 6| 15,475. 99| 5600| 100. 6| 378,060. 00| 2004| 115. 9| 15,704. 13| 7000| 114. 8| 495,447. 00| 2005| 125. 5| 15,816. 69| 1 0000| 118. 6| 648,574. 00| 2006| 134. 9| 15,963. 81| 12000| 122. 5| 841,011. 00| 2007| 146. 3| 16,126. 20| 11300| 142| 1,254,000. 00| 2008| 179. 6| 16,303. 54| 16320| 215. 2| 1,513,540. 00| 2009| 192| 17,066. 34| 15700| 218. 6| 1,910,590. 00| 2010| 209. | 18,620. 84| 16850| 251. 8| 2,478,310. 00| References BBC, 2007. Vietnam's WTO membership begins. Available online at URL: http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. stm (Accessed May 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. Di? u hanh chinh sach t? gia nam 2008 va phuong hu? ng nam 2009. Available online at URL: http://luattaichinh. wordpress. com/2009/02/26/di%E1%BB%81u-hanh-chinh-sach-t%E1%BB%B7-gia-nam-2008-va-ph%C6%B0%C6%A1ng-h%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bng-nam-2009/ (Accessed May 4, 2012) General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2012. Trade, Price and Tourism statistical data. Available online at URL: http://www. so. gov. vn/default_en. aspx? tabid=472&idmid=3 (Accessed May 4, 2012) Gujarati, D. N. , 2003. Basic Econometrics – 4th edition. McGr aw-Hill Higher Education. Indexmundi, 2011. Vietnam – money and quasi money. Available online at URL: http://www. indexmundi. com/facts/vietnam/money-and-quasi-money (Accessed April 26, 2012) Phuoc, T. V. & Long, T. H. , 2010. Ch? s? gia tieu dung Vi? t Nam va cac y? u t? tac d? ng. Vietcombank, 2002. T? gia VND/USD ti? p t? c ? n d? nh tuong d? i. Available online at URL: http://www. vietcombank. com. vn/News/Vcb_News. aspx? ID=1489 (Accessed May 3, 2012)

Library management system Essay

In one of the first papers on library management systems (LMS) in the UK to be published during the review period of 1991-2000, Arfield 1 describes how the changing economics of computing resulted in staff at Reading University Library wishing to move away from a system shared between various libraries to an integrated library management system under local control. Reading had been a member of the SWALCAP (originally standing for the South Western Academic Libraries Co-operative Automation Project) which had provided shared cataloguing and circulation services to a number of academic libraries in the UK since 1979. However, ageing equipment was becoming increasingly unreliable and staff at Reading felt that the SWALCAP service was unable to cope with the increasing number of terminals that were required for the users. This situation was replicated in other academic and public libraries at the start of the 1990s and many moved over, or migrated, to integrated library management systems (in Reading’s case the LIBS 100 system from CLSI was chosen). Jones 2, of the House of Lords Library, describes how the decline in the number of customers of the shared services resulted in the decision by SLS (SWALCAP Library Services) to withdraw this service. Following a study undertaken by an external consultant (when it was recommended that a multi-user integrated LMS be chosen) a decision was made to implement the ADVANCE system from the company Geac in the House of Lords. Another reason for libraries choosing to replace their LMS during this period was the fact that some LMSs were not designed to cop e with dates in the 2000s –i.e. they were not Year 2000 (or Y2K) compliant. Many of the integrated LMSs, such as CLSI’s LIBS 100 and Geac’s ADVANCE, were developed during the 1980s so that by the 1990s these comprised a number of modules to cover the general library housekeeping functions of: Cataloguing – creating records for material held in the collection Circulation – keeping track of who has what item from the collection on loan Providing access to the catalogue – via an Online Public Access Catalogue (OPAC) Acquisitions – selecting and ordering items for the collection and maintaining the accounts Serials control –managing the acquisition of serial publications and so dealing with challenges such as claiming for missing issues. Interlibrary lending – to enable books and serials to be borrowed from different libraries. Most LMSs are now integrated, i.e.data is only held once by the system and is then used by all the modules and functions. This has an obvious benefit as a search of an OPAC can inform the user as to the number of copies of the title are held, where they are housed, as well as whether or not they are out on loan, and if so when they are likely to be returned. The libraries of the early 1990s, be they public, university, college, medical, government, legal, industrial, or school, dealt primarily with printed materials such as books, reports, scholarly journals and so on, as well as what were referred to as non-book materials, such as films, videos, tape-slide productions, CD-ROMs and so on. However, by the end of the 1990s the huge impact of the Internet and the World Wide Web meant that staff in libraries increasingly were involved in not just managing the collections housed physically within the four walls of their library building but were also involved in providing access to a vast range of digital information sources of potential relevance to their users which were housed outwith the library building. This mixture of providing access to print and digital collections caused some writers, e.g. Oppenheim and Smithson 3 , to refer to the development of the hybrid library. For staff working in libraries in the early 1990s the LMSs were, for many, their first experiences in using computers. By the end of the 1990s though, following much training in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) as part of the Electronic Libraries Programme (eLib) in the UK’s academic libraries (Rusbridge4) and the People’s Network in public libraries ( Library and Information Commission 5) staff became much more familiar with using computer systems. The functionality required by LMSs inevitably evolved during the 1990s and some suppliers kept pace with technological developments whereas others failed. Another development of the 1990s was that many smaller libraries were able to afford to buy LMSs as systems began to cost thousands (or in some cases hundreds) of pounds rather than hundreds of thousands of pounds. A number of books appeared during the decade providing, inter alia, advice to librarians involved in selecting and managing LMSs. Examples include Clayton with Batt6 , Harbour7, Rowley 8 9 and Tedd 10. Managing the Electronic Library 11 covers a wider area than LMS with 40 contributors, mainly from the UK academic community. The main theme of this book is change and how staff in university libraries were responding in the 1990s to the rapidly changing higher education system in the UK with its increasing student numbers and greater diversity and requirement for flexibility of access to information. For many libraries the challenge relating to LMS was not necessarily choosing a new system ‘from scratch’ but migrating from one system to another as described earlier. Muirhead’s book12 includes a number of case studies written by library staff from a range of different types of library describing their experiences in migration. Muirhead also edited the British version of a book13 on planning for library automation which was written in the US. Brief descriptions of some of the LMS available In this section brief descriptions will be given of some of the LMSs used in UK libraries between 1991 and 2000. Further details are provided in the excellent directory of 30 LMS compiled by Leeves with Russell 14 through funding from the British Library Research and Development Department (BLR&DD) under the auspices of the Library Information Technology Centre (LITC) at South Bank University in London. The LITC was a centre which, in 1991, moved from its former base at the Polytechnic of Central London to the then South Bank Polytechnic. LITC was funded by the BLR&DD to offer impartial advice on LMSs and general automation projects to librarians and information professionals. Staff at LITC were involved in a number of activities related to LMSs including the production of briefing documents, guides (e.g. 15 16) , introductory packs (e.g. for special sectors, such as school libraries17), providing consultancy advice to individual libraries choosing a new LMS, being involved in funded research work and publishing the journal Vine. The Leeves with Russell directory was based, in part, on an earlier directory (Leeves et al. 18) of some 29 LMS in Europe; of these over 50% referred to LMS used in UK libraries at that time. Other references to case studies describing particular implementations have, in the main, been taken from the journals Program: electronic library and information systems and Vine. ADLIB This LMS was initially developed in the 1980s by Lipman Management Resources of Maidenhead and in the 1990s was supplied by Adlib Information Systems. Leeves with Russell record 11 users of ADLIB in the mid-1990s most of which, ten, were special libraries. An example of a library and information service implementing ADLIB is provided by Wilsher19 who describes the decision made by the Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service (ACAS) to choose the catalogue, OPAC and acquisitions modules of this system to replace the previous BookshelF system used when ACAS was part of the UK government’s Department of Employment. ALEPH 500 Ex Libris developed its first LMS, the forerunner of the ALEPH 500 system, for the Hebrew University in Jerusalem in the 1980s and it became a popular system in Europe. The first customer for ALEPH 500 in the UK was King’s College London (KCL) which, in 1996, was looking for a new LMS to replace the soon to be defunct LIBERTAS system. Sudell and Robinson 20 describe that procurement process and explain how its use of industry standards (Unix, Oracle, Windows, SQL etc.) was one of the major reasons for its being chosen for King’s. Many other academic libraries followed KCL in choosing ALEPH 500 including Bristol, as described by King21. ALICE This LMS originated in Australia and was introduced into the UK market in 1992. It is primarily aimed at school libraries and has proved to be popular with Leeves with Russell recording some 320 users in special, college and prison libraries as well as in schools. Darroch 22 provides a brief description of the place of ALICE in the LMS marketplace in the late 1990s. ALS Automated Library Systems (ALS) is a British company that has been involved with computer-based library systems since the late 1960s when it developed a special device based on punched paper-tape for automatically recording details of books and borrowers at a library’s issue desk. During the 1990s the suppliers developed a version of the ALS System 900 which would run on open systems platforms (as opposed to the previous proprietary hardware and software solution) as well as dealing with Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) developments in the acquisitions module. Ashton23 describes how EDI with ALS was used at Hertfordshire Libraries Arts and Information Service. BookshelF/Genesis BookshelF originated as a microcomputer-based software package developed in the 1980s for the Cairns Library at the John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford. However, by the 1990s the multi-user system of BookshelF became known as Genesis and was marketed by the Specialist Computer Group (SCG). Rowley 24 describes how this LMS was one of the first to run as a Windows product with a graphical user interface (GUI). Further details of BookshelF are provided by Fisher and Rowley 25. Leeves with Russell report that takeup of this new LMS had been quite rapid during the early 1990s with there being 37 customers (mainly college or small academic) including both previous BookshelF customers which had upgraded to the new improved system as well as new customers. CAIRS-LMS The Computer Assisted Information Retrieval System (CAIRS) was initially developed as an inhouse information retrieval system for the Leatherhead Food Research Association in the mid-1970s. CAIRS-LMS was developed to complement this and was used by those libraries in the 1990s which typically had sophisticated information retrieval requirements and comparatively low numbers of loans. Perrow26 describes the upgrade from the microcomputer version of CAIRS (MicroCAIRS) to CAIRS-LMS at Templeton College. Leeves with Russell record 218 users of CAIRS-LMS, the vast majority of which were special libraries. Bennett and Tomlinson27 describe the use of the interlibrary loans module of CAIRS-LMS at the library of the Institutions of Electrical Engineers. DataTrek This LMS originated from software developed in the US but by the 1990s some UK special libraries were using it. Hoey28, for instance, describes its implementation at the Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). As similar learned societies, the RSC had been using online information retrieval system since the 1980s and by the 1990s realised the need for a complementary LMS. In 1996 DataTrek, by then part of the Dawson Holdings group, acquired Information Management and Engineering (IME) the producers of the Tinlib software. Dynix/ Horizon The history of Dynix up to the early 1990s is provided by Gilmartin with Beavan29 who were responsible for implementing this LMS at Glasgow Caledonian University. The original Dynix LMS was developed in the US in the 1980s and Leeves with Russell state that there were 68 users of this LMS in the UK in public, university, small academic/college and special libraries. During the 1990s a client-server LMS, Horizon, was marketed by the firm Ameritech Library Services, which had merged with Dynix during the 1990s. Hackett and Geddes30 describe the Horizon LMS noting that it was truly scaleable with installations in small special libraries as well as large multi-site academic libraries, although they also note that it might have been argued that Horizon was marketed too early in the UK in 1995, when the product lacked depth of functionality required to deal with the needs of large multi-site universities. However by 1998, when universities including Huddersfield, Middlesex, Staffordshire, Strathclyde and Birkbeck College, University of London had implemented Horizon the feeling was that customers were â€Å" beginning to reap the benefits of its fully graphical, client/server construction†. In 2000 Ameritech Library Services became known as epixtech Inc.and continued to supply existing products as well as web-based solutions and services. Galaxy The Galaxy 2000 LMS, from the British firm, DS proved to be a popular system, particularly in public libraries, during the 1990s. Neary31 describes how Birmingham Library service, the biggest metropolitan library authority in the UK with 40 community libraries and the busiest lending library in Europe installed the Galaxy 2000 LMS in 1994 and the upgraded it  to a newer version in 1999. Galaxy 2000 offers the usual LMS modules but also has a separate issuing function for use of the Birmingham’s housebound service. The OPAC module of Galaxy is known as ViewPoint and there have been some 230 ViewPoint terminals located throughout Birmingham since 1994. Geac This Canadian firm Geac first installed its Geac Library Information System in a UK library in 1979 and this software ran on proprietary hardware and was used in several UK libraries in the 1980s. In 1988 Geac acquired an American company, Advanced Libraries, and developed its software, ADVANCE, to run under the Unix operating system and this became its main LMS offering in the 1990s. For instance, in the mid-1990s Edinburgh University upgraded its previous Geac (Geac 9000) system to ADVANCE, Newcastle University chose this system as did the public library at Hamilton District Libraries in Scotland, the National Library of Wales and the Bodleian Library at the University of Oxford. A history of library automation at the Bodleian, including the implementation of the DOBIS/LIBIS system in the late 1980s is provided by Crawshaw32 and Burnett 33 describes the 1995 decision to migrate to ADVANCE along with an assessment of the impact of automation on such a large organisation and a catalo gue of some eight million items. Geac ADVANCE was the basis for the Oxford Library Information System (OLIS) that provided library housekeeping services for many of the Oxford colleges, academic libraries within the university as well as the copyright library. During the 1990s Geac also acquired CLSI and its LIBs 100 LMS and marketed this for some time. Heritage Heritage, like Genesis, was developed from the original BookshelF software although Heritage was initially a single-user system, and was marketed by Logical Choice (which became known as Inheritance Systems during the 1990s) in Oxford. Alper 34 describes the implementation of Heritage in a small one-librarian medical service and concluded that this LMS had proved to be a great time-saver in issuing and claiming books and had excellent statistical reporting facilities. In 1997 the library at the Central School of Speech and Drama, having outgrown its previous LMS, needed a new system. Edwards 35 describes the selection process for this new system which resulted in a short list of four LMS ranging in price from  £3,000 –  £27,400. Heritage was chosen ( at a cost of  £11,350) and the paper describes some of the innovative features of this LMS. INNOPAC/ Millennium Innovative Interfaces Inc. (III) is an American company which started to market the INNOPAC LMS in the UK in the early 1990s with the first customer being the library at the University of Wales, Bangor. In 1995 staff at the University of Hull, as described by Leeson 36, chose INNOPAC to replace the previous Geac 9000 as it had improved functionality. In 1997 III acquired the UK company SLS and its LIBERTAS software. Towards the end of the 1990s III started to develop its Millennium system which, inter alia, provided a web-based interface for each module. Users of Millennium in the UK included Sheffield Hallam University, St. Andrew’s University, and St. Mary’s University College in Twickenham. The School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London chose Millennium because of its proven ability to deal with Chinese, Japanese and Korean material. Myhill37 provides a personal insight into the challenges faced at the University of Exeter in migrating from th e LIBERTAS LMS to Millennium. LIBERTAS The stand-alone LMS LIBERTAS, of SLS, was designed with assistance from many of the systems librarians who were working in the libraries of member universities of the SWALCAP co-operative. LIBERTAS was launched in 1986 and initially incorporated modules for cataloguing, OPAC, and circulation control. Leeves with Russell report 46 users of LIBERTAS in UK libraries by the mid-1990s. Bradford38 outlines the advantages and disadvantages of using the ILL module of LIBERTAS at Bristol University, which was an original member of SWALCAP. In 1997 SLS was sold to III and support for the LIBERTAS system declined. OLIB Smith39 describes how the Bar Library in Belfast which serves all practising barristers in Northern Ireland implemented the OLIB LMS from the British  firm Fretwell Downing in 1996. The requirements for this special library included the need to provide a document management/delivery service for members as well as an efficient system for managing the library. Initially the Bar Library used the cataloguing, circulation and OPAC modules of OLIB with the intention of implementing the acquisitions and serials modules at a later date. Talis The other early co-operative for library automation in the UK was BLCMP- or Birmingham Libraries Co-operative Mechanisation project. Like SWALCAP it had developed stand-alone software for its members which, in the early 1990s, was known as BLS – BLCMP’s Library System- and included modules for acquisitions, OPAC, circulation control and serials control. In 1992 BLCMP announced a new Unix-based system known as Talis. Like LIBERTAS, Talis had been designed in conjunction with the co-operative’s member libraries. It was based on a modular principles using computing industry standards for an open systems design. Among the early users of Talis were the John Rylands Library of the University of Manchester and the public library of the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames. Leeves with Russell report 30 users of Talis in the mid-1990s, most of which were university or public libraries in the UK. Wilson 40 describes the experiences of migrating from BLS to Talis at Nene College, the first institution to undertake this migration and produced a lengthy list of ‘morals of migration’. In 1999 the organisation supplying Talis ceased being a co-operative of member libraries and became a commercial company. This decision followed much consultation with the members of the co-operative and the new company stated that strong customer relationships and customer focus would remain central to the culture of the business. Tinlib Tinlib, also known as the Information Navigator, was developed by the British firm IME in the 1980s. It was one of the earliest systems to offer a navigational facility and to make use of Windows for display and selection of data. Leeves with Russell report that there were 315 users of Tinlib in the mid-1990s in the UK although a full customer list was not supplied.  Chappell and Thackeray41 outline the need for an automated system to replace the existing manual systems at the library of the Arts Council of Great Britain and how the use of Tinlib had increased the effectiveness and efficiency of the library and made its collections much more accessible. Unicorn Haines42 describes her experiences during 1990 in attempting to negotiate the acquisition of an American system, Unicorn, from the Sirsi Corporation, which was previously not available in Europe, for use in a British independent health fund, the King’s Fund. Sirsi was determined not to enter the European market without a partner with expertise in library software support and with the necessary technical skills in Unix systems. This was finally achieved and the system was successfully launched in the UK in 1991. Leeves with Russell reported some 37 users of Unicorn most of which were medical, legal or government libraries. Cree43, for instance, outlines how Unicorn was introduced into the UK government’s Department of Health library where it needed to be integrated with the Department’s office information system and added to a large network with multiple applications. By the end of the 1990s Unicorn was used in a variety of libraries including the Cheltenham and G loucester College of Higher Education, the London School of Economics, the Royal College of Nursing, the Royal Veterinary College, and the library at the Natural History Museum. Voyager Endeavor Information Systems was formed in the US in 1994 and its first product was its Voyager LMS. The WebVoyage module of Voyager allows web browsers to query the Voyager database, which is based on the Oracle relational database management system. Voyager became the LMS of choice for a number of libraries looking for new systems following the demise of LIBERTAS. In Wales , for instance, the university libraries of Aberystwyth, Cardiff, Lampeter and Swansea as well as the Welsh College of Music and Drama were all faced with choosing a new system and they decided to approach the selection process in a consortial way, as described by West44. Each institution was free to choose its own system following the selection process. In the event all chose Voyager from Endeavor and these systems were  implemented, with differing OPAC interfaces in 1999. Knights45 outlines the procurement and migration experiences at Hertfordshire University Library in moving also from LIBERTAS to Voyager. Inevitably not all the LMSs offered all modules in a way that satisfied all staff in libraries. In the 1990s there were some examples of libraries which had one LMS for most of its applications but used another for a specific function. For instance, Edwards46 describes that although Croydon Libraries had automated its circulation and stock control procedures for many years a decision had been made to delay the automation of the acquisitions processes as the LMS in place (CLSI’s LIBS 100) did not satisfy the needs of the acquisitions staff. In 1997 the acquisitions module from ALS’s Meritus LMS was used, in conjunction with a network solution for EDI ordering and invoicing was implemented. The requirements for interlibrary loans (ILL) within the UK which for many libraries involves the use of the centralised British Library’s Document Supply Centre have not always been met by LMSs, particularly those developed outside the UK. Leeves47 describes solutions for autom ating ILL in the early part of the 1990s and Prowse 48 describes the process of developing an ILL module for the ALEPH 500 LMS that had been installed at KCL. Reports in the literature of overviews of LMS during 1991-2000 Apart from the Leeves with Russell directory which includes details of users of the different LMS there have also been other studies and surveys undertaken during the period. In 1991 Blunden-Ellis49 reported on an update to a previous survey and aimed to provide an analysis of the UK market for LMS in a form that complemented the US annual LMS marketplace survey (e.g. Bridge50). The data for this market analysis was retrieved from questionnaires sent to LMS suppliers including ALS, BLS, CLSI, DS, Dynix, Fretwell Downing, Geac, IME and SLS. He concluded that DS was the overall market leader and that there was plenty of evidence of suppliers enhancing their products. In conclusion he stated that â€Å" This market will become increasingly competitive on economic, geographic and technological levels and so no vendor, even with a good current share, can confidently expect a ‘blue skies future. Investment in research and development and customer satisfaction remain the key activities for the immediate future.† By 1992 Blunden-Ellis51 reported that BLS had the market share with SLS as second. These were both established major forces and newer suppliers in the market at that time, i.e. Dynix and IME were performing well. In the final survey in this series Blunden-Ellis and Graham52 extended the coverage of their questionnaire as it was sent to 38 suppliers identified by the LITC and 29 responses were received. Previous surveys had concentrated on larger LMS suppliers and since this survey included many smaller LMS suppliers a total of nine market segments was identified. The Web was just beginning to impact on libraries at the time of this last survey and the final point made was that library housekeeping systems will become just one of a suite of services designed to deliver packaged information quickly and effortlessly. A different perspective on the use of, and growth of, LMS in public libraries in the UK has been provided in other surveys. In 1991 Dover53 reported on a survey undertaken through funding from the UK government’s Office of Arts and Libraries through the BLR&DD. Questionnaires were sent to 109 public library authorities and 95 responses were analysed. Batt, then of the London Borough of Croydon, carried out a series of six surveys of information technology in public libraries between 1984 and 1997. Comparisons year on year though are problematic given various local government reorganisations, such as that in 1997. In the sixth edition54 he reported that 95% of the 168 authorities surveyed had some form of automated circulation system in at least one service point. This compared with 82% in the previous survey of 1993. He also found that 38% has an automated circulation system in all their libraries. Table 1 shows some of the LMS used. Table 1 LMS used in public libraries as reported by Batt in 1997 1993 1997 ALS913 BLS1532 CLSI/GEAC PLUS119 DS2836 Dynix1520 Genesis8 Unicorn1 Availability of an OPAC had featured on Batt’s questionnaire since 1985 and his report shows the shift from seven authorities with some form of OPAC in 1985 to 143 in 1997 – a considerable shift. Automated acquisitions were reported in 76% of the authorities and 26% (44 of the 168) were also using EDI to communicate with a range of suppliers. An intriguing view of LMS in the 1990s is provided by Heseltine 55 who outlines the history and current state of the LMS market using the stages through which Christian passes in Pilgrim’s Progress. The ‘delights’ to be found at the end of the journey were described as: improvements in the user interface. He noted that many of the LMSs were developed from systems of the 1970s and 1980s which had rudimentary user interfaces access to a wider range of information  improved management information  systems designed for end users and not library staff implementation of standards. Yeates56 also wrote about how the LMSs of the 1990s reflected a conservative view of the library as a passive repository which took little account of the needs of the users and of the possibility of dynamic interaction. However, in a study of 10 libraries from the academic, public and special sectors which had purchased library management systems in the mid-1990s Murray 57 found that some of Heseltine’s ‘delights’ had come to pass as he noted the following: New generation LMSs are more flexible (portable and easier to use, more powerful in terms of connectivity) and incorporate industry standards. New LMSs are less staff intensive (in terms of support and backup). More suppliers now offer software only packages. Client/server systems and Windows-based LMSs have yet to become a mandatory requirement in the procurement process. Some of the libraries had taken the views of their end users into account when having systems demonstrated. The production of management information remained an area of difficulty for some systems. There was unanimity in the belief that Web developments in terms of software being provided by sippliers and the ability to link from the LMS to the Internet would dominate the marketplace. Raven 58 provides a very general review of the LMS marketplace for academic libraries in 2000 and notes that â€Å"Deciding on a new library management system has become much more difficult for universities in the UK in the last two years. The range continues to expand rapidly and if you’ve grown with your present system for the last ten years or so , change can be a frightening prospect.† Some developments in LMS between 1991-2000 Akeroyd59 provides an overview of integrated LMS towards the end of the decade in his introductory paper to a special issue of Vine on LMS in 1999. His developments have been used as a basis for this section although other aspects have also been added. Technological developments Many of the early LMSs used their own specially developed operating systems. However, during the 1990s many suppliers moved to developing systems that ran on the Unix operating system. Similarly many of the early LMSs were designed around specially developed database management systems. During the 1990s there was a move away from these to industry standard relational database management systems such as Ingres (used by Galaxy 2000), Informix (used by Unicorn), Oracle (used by ALEPH and Olib) and Sybase (used by Horizon and Talis). Another technological development of the 1990s was the adoption of the client-server architecture. In this model a split is made between the applications software (which runs on a computer known as the client) and the database software (which runs on a computer known as the server). The two communicate with each other over a network using a communications protocol (or set of rules). Processing which involves data manipulation or aspects of screen display can be carried out on the client computer and only database queries from the client and responses from the server need to be communicated across the network. Self service An important development during the 1990s was the installation of self-issue and self-renewal machines in libraries so that users can issue and return their own books. The library at the University of Sunderland was one of the first to use machines from the 3M company for this purpose. Stafford 60 describes this service and highlights the four Ps (preparation, publicity, position and persuasion) necessary for a successful implementation. In 1996 a conference was held at Sunderland on self-issue systems and its proceedings61 contain a number of case studies. A special issue of Vine was published in 1997 on self service in libraries and Cookman62 describes the introduction of a 3M self-issue terminal at Maidenhead public library. The general experience was that library staff accepted the benefits of the new terminal and that on busy days queues had reduced noticeably. However, when the issue desk was quiet it appeared that users preferred the human approach to issuing and returning mat erials. Messages to users by e-mail or text With many users having access to e-mail and/or mobile telephones some LMS have incorporated the facility to use these technologies for sending overdue notices, alerts for reserved items or other communications. Sudell and Robinson63 note that the reader record in the ALEPH 500 system at KCL can hold a variety of addresses. If an e-mail address is entered then that will be first in line, if not the system can handle multiple postal addresses so that an appropriate address may be used depending on whether it is term time or vacation. Improved accessibility via the OPAC and use of the Z39.50 protocol OPACs have always been designed with end users in mind and so the interfaces that have developed over the years from the command-driven and menu-based systems at the start of the decade to the form filling on Web pages have all been intended to be straightforward to use. However the information that is searched i.e. the records in the catalogue database are often stored in MARC format which has little information to support elaborate subject searching. The 856 field of MARC allows the inclusion of a URL into the bibliographic record by the end of the 1990s some OPACs were using this to provide links to digital objects.. A further development of the 1990s related to OPACs was the Z39.50 standard. As defined by Dempsey et al.64 Z39.50 is â€Å" a retrieval protocol which allows client programs to query databases on remote servers, to retrieve results and to carry out some other retrieval-related functions.† The main impact of this is that it enables users to, say, search the OPAC of a neighbouring library (which might perhaps use the Horizon LMS) using the same user interface as the local library (which might be based on the Talis LMS). For this to happen the relevant LMSs need to have appropriate software to make them Z39.50 compatible. A list of LMS with this capability is provided by Dempsey et al. and includes: ADVANCE, ALEPH, DataTrek, Dynix, Horizon, INNOPAC, LIBERTAS, OLIB, Talis, Tinlib and Unicorn. Brack65 describes t he RIDING Project which resulted from one of the eLib Programme’s large scale resource discovery (clumps) projects and which provided a Z39.50 Search and Retrieve facility for all the Yorkshire and Humberside university OPACs, plus the British Library Document Supply Centre databases and the Leeds Library and Information Service OPAC. Catalogue record provision Most LMS allow for original cataloguing of bibliographic records as well as for allowing the import of, usually MARC, records from external sources. Although not all LMSs use the MARC record for internal processing of records they usually do include the ability to input or output records in this format. The early UK co-operatives of BLCMP and SWALCAP developed large databases of MARC records which proved valuable to the cataloguers of their respective member libraries. Many of these records have now been incorporated into the OCLC database in the US and made available internationally. Retrospective cataloguing of materials held in libraries continues and Bryant’s report66 outlines the issues, opportunities and need for a national strategy in this area. Examples of consortial working Although the BLCMP and SWALCAP co-operatives had disappeared by the end of  the 1990s there were several examples of other consortial projects and systems related to LMSs. Some of these consortia were formed as part of the eLib Programme, others, such as the Welsh academic libraries already mentioned were linked with the sharing of resources for the procurement of a new LMS. COPAC COPAC is the OPAC of the Consortium of University Research Libraries which provides free access to the merged catalogues of 20+ major university research libraries in the UK and Ireland. Cousins67 describes the development of COPAC and its launch in the mid-1990s. COPAC is an example of a physical merged catalogue i.e. all the records from all the libraries are combined into one database and checks are made to identify duplicate records. During the 1990s COPAC was available via a text interface as well as a Web interface. M25 consortium The M25 Consortium of Academic Libraries was formed in 1993 with the aim of fostering co-operation amongst its London-based, higher education member libraries in order to improve services to users. In 1998 the M25 Link project was funded as part of the eLib Programme and aimed to establish a pilot virtual clump to provide single search access to the library catalogues of six members of the M25 Consortium. The project consisted of a seamless search tool, using the Z39.50 protocol, to the OPACs of the six pilot partners which between them had a range of LMSs including: Horizon, INNOPAC, Libertas, Talis and Unicorn. An overview of the work undertaken by the M25 Consortium is provided by Enright68. Foursite consortium Froud 69 describes the Foursite consortium of four public libraries in the South West of England which came together to identify replacement computer requirements and which subsequently went on to share a single LMS operated by one of its members, Somerset. The Foursite consortium demonstrated that significant cost savings could be achieved at all stages in the process of specifying, selecting and implementing an LMS provided: political support and enthusiasm by members of the consortium flexible management in all authorities who were prepared to make sacrifices in the interest of the consortium’s objectives, coupled with an openness that precluded any hidden agendas tight project management clear terms of reference for individual groups and clear ground rules good communication systems  expert technical advice. Use of project management methodologies There was some evidence during the 1990s of project management methodologies being used for the procurement and implementation of LMSs. Lewis70 describes the use of the PRINCE (Projects IN Controlled Environments) methodology at the University of Wales Bangor for the procurement, in conjunction with the North East Wales Institute, of a replacement LMS. PRINCE is a project management methodology used within government departments. Chambers and Perrow71 report on a questionnaire carried out as part of a study on the sue of project management methodologies generally in university libraries in the UK. Of the 80 university librarians who responded, 28% had used project management software – and the most popular software was Microsoft Project. Closer links between LMSs and archives Suffolk County Council’s Libraries and Heritage is an example of an organisation which covers public libraries, record offices, arts and museums. Suffolk had installed its first LMS (a batch system to deal with circulation in conjunction with a microfiche catalogue) in 1980. By 1987 this had been replaced with an LMS using proprietary hardware, software and communications which managed circulation, acquisitions, cataloguing, community information, the OPAC, e-mail, dial-in facilities and management information. In 1995, when the time came to replace this LMS, the aim was to provide a system which would use generic hardware, software and communications which would provide a networking infrastructure to bring Internet access to all branches and which would also serve the needs of Suffolk’s archives and museums. Pachent 72 describes the procurement process which resulted in the acquisition of DS Ltd’s Galaxy 2000 and the CALM 2000 systems. Closer links between LMSs and archives in the public sector was enhanced during the decade by the formation of the Museums, Libraries and Archives Council (MLA) ( and its forerunner Re:Source) as the strategic body working with, and for museums, archives and libraries. Fitzgerald and Flanagan 73 describe the implementation of the Unicorn system at the Royal Botanic Garden, Kew for managing its collections of archives as well as books. Human aspects One of the core texts related to the human aspects of the use of computers in libraries is that by Morris and Dyer74. In the introduction to this work the authors note that there are many pitfalls on the road to the successful implementation of any computer system, such as an LMS, in a library and that if people respond badly to the introduction of the new system, the anticipated effectiveness will not be achieved. They also note that poor workstation and job design can result in poor health and can induce, or increase, stress and that poorly designed user interfaces can result in under-used systems and a decrease in accuracy. The book provides much advice as to how to overcome such challenges and to design systems that are human-friendly. The role of the systems librarian developed during the 1990s. Following research funded in the early 1990s by the BLR&DD Muirhead75 reported on the result of a questionnaire aimed at identifying the education, qualifications, previous experience and so on of staff who were involved in the day to day running of LMSs in libraries in the UK and also edited a book76 containing a series of case studies. Stress related to technology, or ‘technostress’, emerged as an identifiable condition during the 1990s. Harper 77 noted that with UK libraries undergoing increasingly rapid technological change at the end of the 1990s this change would have consequences at every level of an organisation, all of which must be managed. He advised that managers need to adopt solutions which range from addressing technical and health issues to being prepared to review job descriptions and roles. Further information on how the implementation of an LMS has effects on job design and staffing structures is provided by Dyer et al.78 whereas Daniels 79 looks on the effect the implementation of an LMS has had on non-professional staff in three college libraries. Some final thoughts Inevitably there have been many changes and developments related to the provision and availability of library management systems during the 1990s. Much appeared in the literature on experiences of libraries in choosing and implementing particular LMSs. One aspect that was promised in LMSs and that probably was not used greatly during the 1990s was the management information delivered from LMS. By the end of the 1990s some LMSs incorporated interfaces to standard tools such as Microsoft’s Excel for the presentation of statistical data. During the 1990s there was an almost total lack of reporting on ways of evaluating LMSs once they had been installed. Given the large amounts of resources, in terms of time and money, invested in procuring LMSs it is perhaps surprising that libraries have not carried out a post-implementation review, although there may well be reasons for this including, for instance: no-one requested in  not enough time,  no money ,no suitable staff to carry out the evaluation  fear of drawing attention to an LMS’s defects soon after large amounts of time, money and collective energy ahs been expended lack of a baseline for comparison of improved service. However, there are many reasons why a post-implementation evaluation of an LMS should take place. Such reasons include to: determine if the broader goals of the library are being met by the LMS determine if the particular goals of implementing the LMS have been met determine if the system as delivered satisfies the contract enable others to learn from the experience  provide an account to the funding body of the money spent on the LMS  investigate complaints from the staff or users about the system establish a benchmark showing at what level of performance the LMS is operating. Akeroyd 80 concluded his overview of LMSs with a description of some of the functionality required by future systems and which were beginning to be investigated in some research projects at the end of the 1990s. These included: the integration of multiple sources and systems, both of bibliographic information and the full-text of documents the simplification of access to sources  the personalisation of systems  a change in the way that software is created and maintained. Only a review of the next years would provide an overview of such future developments.